The new Rasmussen polls now have their Senate prediction looking like this:
48 - D
49 - R
3 - Toss-up.
The three toss-ups are Tennessee, New Jersey, and Missouri. New Jersey is safe. As my only proof of that I bring you this commentary.
I am from there. (1+ / 0-)
And every single election, whether it's for the President, Senator, Governor, Senator, you name it.
This is what happens.
So not making this up.
You can do the research.
I'm too lazy right now, tired from work.
But every single time, polls come out showing the D in the lead months ahead.
Then the lead shrinks.
Then the R even gains a few points.
Then the NJ media goes beserk screaming TIGHT RACE tight race tight TIGHT tight WOW! could it be?? Yes, this is one hell of race.
Then they keep this up to election day.
Then kossaks and everyone outside of NJ goes OH SHIT. is Blue NJ going Red? Purple?
They said Gore was locked in a tight one with Bush.
Right up until days before.
Then Gore takes the state by like what?
They said Bush might take NJ over Kerry by like four points?
Kerry wins it.
The polls showed a tight race for Corzine for Gov. with the R.
RIGHT up until the polls opened they said the R (Forrester) could very well win.
According to the polls.
And Corzine wins by double digits (two years ago).
It never ends.
I don't get it.
I am SO not worried about NJ going for Kean.
It ain't ever EVER ever going to happen.
I promise you.
I've lived here all my life.
I don't care what anyone says, Kean loses to the D, period.
* [new] I'm from there too (0 / 0)
I think Kean is not gonna make it either. If he was running for da guvner, maybe, but not for the Senate. New Jersey voters realize that there is much more at stake here. Note the large number of undecideds. I would bet most of those have actually already made up their minds, but people in Jersey like to pose like they can be swayed even when they can't.
* [new] Menendez vs. Kean (0 / 0)
...is this year's version of Knowles vs. Murkowski (AK-Sen) in 2004, only with the parties reversed.
Lisa Murkowski was an unpopular appointed incumbent and Tony Knowles a very likable challenger. Knowles led in many of the polls leading up to the election. However, party affiliation meant enough to Alaska's voters to make Murkowski the winner.
I suspect the same reasoning will put Menendez over the top. NJ is as blue as AK is red.
Add New Jersey to our side and you have:
49 - D
49 - R
2 - Toss-up.
The two toss-ups are Tennessee and Missouri. All signs look bad in Missou, we are going to lose that one. However, Ford is starting to produce a steady lead and is putting out a good ad buy.
That leaves us at 50-50. However, the lean-R race is Virginia. If you saw Meet the Press this weekend, you know we have a good shot at taking down Mr. Macaca, which means we are closing in on 51-49. And, that my friends, is why we never give up.