September 09, 2006

My Senate Prediction and Progressive Leaning

Why not, everyone else is doing it. I've been reading all the polls, all the other predictions, and fooling around on this page at the NYT.
My predictions are:
Pennsylvania - Win a close one (Casey is a lousy campaigner, Santorum is good, but he is too loony for PA).
Ohio - Win a close one (Ohio corruption stains the Imperial Republic Party).
Rhode Island - Win a blowout after Laffey wins the Primary.
Montana - Win with a fairly good margin (5-6 points) because everyone there is looking to hate Burns, and he is providing them the opportunity.
Virginia - Win a nail-biter, perhaps with a recount it is so close.

Tennessee - Again, a nail-biter, but I don't think we win Tennessee (yet).
Missouri - This race was trending nicely for us, but now is going the other way. I think Talent keeps his seat.
Nevada - I think Carter positions himself well for another run, another day, but loses by 2-3 points in Nevada. The only way this race turns is if the unions prove themselves to be like the unions in the 40-50s and create huge turnout for Dems. If Democratic turnout is much, much higher in Las Vegas than ever before, then Carter might win.
Arizona - I don't know why people are even polling this race anymore. Unless we have a huge scandal, like happened with Obama's opponent, Pederson loses.

Outcome - 50 Republicans, 49 Democrats, 1 Indy, which means a 50-50 split with Cheney having deciding vote.

HOWEVER, there is a huge upside to this. We replace:
Jeffords in VT with Bernie Sanders. Former Republican replaced with self-described Socialist. Progressive +1.

Lamont beats Lieberman in CT. Replace an Imperial-appeaser with a progressive Democrat. Progressives +2.

Tester is an organic farmer with all the right positions. Progressives +3.

Casey is conservative, but Santorum is man-on-dog conservative. Progressives +4.

George Allen is a racist KKK-appeaser. Jim Webb used to serve Reagan, only in this race could we say...Progressive +5.

Ohio and Rhode Island. We are replacing Republicans with Democrats. Those Democrats are not left-wing, but they are Democrats. Progressives +6, +7.

I'm not sure about Amy Klobuchar, she seems fairly progressive, but Dayton did too based on votes. So, in the end the Senate leans Progressive +7 compared to previously.

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