December 27, 2005

The Good News Post

I recently got pissed off after reading about how we were only ten points down in yet another poll. I'm so sick of being behind and getting excited that we are finally going to win, only to have Lucy pull out the football. Then I got to thinking that it was really just a matter of perspective, we are doing well in a lot of races - so I thought I would find that data:

Diane Feinstein (CA) - As of the end of September, Feinstein had $5.2 million in the bank for her reelection run. No opponent.

Bill Nelson (FL) - Democratic incumbent Sen. Bill Nelson begins his reelection year with a 55 – 31 percent lead over U.S. Rep. Katherine Harris, the only announced Republican challenger in the 2006 Florida U.S. Senate race. At the end of September, Harris had raised $1.3 million and had only $470,000 cash on hand.

Maryland Senate
- It looks like Cardin will win, latest Rasmussen poll has Cardin at 45% and Steele at 40%.

Minnesota Senate - Mark Dayton (D) is gone from the Senate, the leading Democrat leads teh Republican Kennedy 48% to 41%.

Washington Senate - ( For the second straight time in a Rasmussen Reports election poll, Democrat Maria Cantwell leads Republican Mike McGavick 52% to 37%. The poll numbers are essentially unchanged from our November 10 survey.

Ohio Senate - Congressman Sherrod Brown, who plans to formally kick-off his Senate campaign today, trails DeWine by just two percentage points in the latest Rasmussen Reports election poll. Paul Hackett, an Iraq War Veteran and strong critic of President Bush, is within a single point of DeWine. Name recognition for the two Democrats is lower than for DeWine - I think we can say this is very competitive.

Nebraska Senate - The latest Rasmussen Reports Election Poll finds Nelson leading political newcomer Pete Rickets by a 52% to 29% margin.

Pennsylvania Senate - The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows that Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is continuing to lose ground in his battle for re-election. Santorum trails Democrat Bob Casey, Jr by twenty percentage points, 54% to 34%.

Generic House of Representatives Race (Rep. - Dem.)
ABC/Washington Post RV -10
Diageo/Hotline RV -10
Democracy Corps -8
CBS/New York Times RV -9
Democracy Corps -10

December 26, 2005

NC House Update

I thought I would put together some information from around the net on the NC House races. First, from the DCCC page, the list of candidates and opponents.
Races in North Carolina (Democrat incumbents in bold; Democratic challengers in italics)

NC-01 Democratic Incumbent Rep. G.K. Butterfield

NC-02 Democratic Incumbent Rep. Bob Etheridge

NC-03 Challenging GOP incumbent Walter Jones:
Craig Weber

NC-04 Democratic Incumbent Rep. David Price

NC-05 GOP incumbent Virginia Foxx
thinking about it:
Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines
Former State Senator Ted Kaplan, from BlueNC

NC-06 GOP incumbent Howard Coble
Some thoughts from Ed Cone.

NC-07 Democratic Incumbent Rep. Mike McIntyre

NC-08 Challenging GOP incumbent Robin Hayes:
Timothy Dunn
Larry Kissell

NC-09 Challenging GOP incumbent Sue Myrick:
Bill Glass

NC-10 Challenging GOP incumbent Patrick McHenry:
Anne Fischer (2004 page, nothing new)

NC-11 Challenging GOP incumbent Charles Taylor:
Heath Shuler

NC-12 Democratic Incumbent Rep. Melvin Watt

NC-13 Democratic Incumbent Rep. Brad Miller

So, how are we doing?
Well, we hold 6 seats that look pretty safe based on past elections. In the 7 seats the Republicans hold, we have declared candidates in 5 of the races. In the Foxx race we have two potential candidates. As of yet, we have no one challenging Coble, but perhaps someone out there knows about an unknown candidate?

What are out best chances at pickups? I have to think that Heath Shuler stands a good chance of knocking off Charles Taylor. Shuler as of October 1 had a 250K to 9K lead in money. Is Taylor even running? Will he have trouble raising funds?
In the last election he raised $330K from Special Interest PACS. That same fund raising will tie into the fact he is ethically challenged, as this roundup does a good job of reviewing.

That race alone would push NC from 6-7 Dem to 7-6 Dem and into the Blue camp. But, we can't forget about our old friend Robin Hayes. Hayes is linked to the corruption, gives a rubber stamp to the Bush administration on almost every issue, and has made some bad votes on the issues - his last minute reversal on CAFTA chief among them. However, he has a $500K or greater to $49K lead over Tim Dunn as of October 1 - it should be interesting to see what happens over the next month. I have no funding information on Larry Kissell at this time, anyone else? All in all, this should be a really competitive race based on corruption and the Republican stain, however, we're going to need some more money.

Are there any other competitive races? NC 1, 2, 4, 7, 12, and 13 are our seats. NC 8 and NC 11 are the two competitive seats, so that leaves NC3, NC5, NC6, NC9, and NC10. NC5 and NC6 we have no candidates, so by definition, not competitive. That leaves NC3 (Walter Jones) and NC9 (Sue Myrick). Jones has $367K cash on hand (as of October) and his stance of Iraq might make it hard for Democrats to beat him. He has stood up to the Bush administration, against the Iraq war, etc. Not saying he shouldn't be voted out, but just that it will be hard. I don't have much information on Sue Myrick, so if anyone wants to update it, I can edit this diary. Myrick has $287K on hand, her opponent has none a of the October report.

December 23, 2005

Christmas Time

It's Christmas Time, so here is my wish list.

1. Iraqi government asks us to leave the country within 3 months.
2. Karl Rove is indicted for the Plame affair.
3. Senate actually investigates GWB and his illegal wiretapping.
4. Someone, anyone, captures Osama bin Laden.
5. Abramhoff gives evidence against a dozen crooked politicians and they spend time in jail.

So, what is your wish for Christmas?