December 26, 2005

NC House Update

I thought I would put together some information from around the net on the NC House races. First, from the DCCC page, the list of candidates and opponents.
Races in North Carolina (Democrat incumbents in bold; Democratic challengers in italics)

NC-01 Democratic Incumbent Rep. G.K. Butterfield

NC-02 Democratic Incumbent Rep. Bob Etheridge

NC-03 Challenging GOP incumbent Walter Jones:
Craig Weber

NC-04 Democratic Incumbent Rep. David Price

NC-05 GOP incumbent Virginia Foxx
thinking about it:
Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines
Former State Senator Ted Kaplan, from BlueNC

NC-06 GOP incumbent Howard Coble
Some thoughts from Ed Cone.

NC-07 Democratic Incumbent Rep. Mike McIntyre

NC-08 Challenging GOP incumbent Robin Hayes:
Timothy Dunn
Larry Kissell

NC-09 Challenging GOP incumbent Sue Myrick:
Bill Glass

NC-10 Challenging GOP incumbent Patrick McHenry:
Anne Fischer (2004 page, nothing new)

NC-11 Challenging GOP incumbent Charles Taylor:
Heath Shuler

NC-12 Democratic Incumbent Rep. Melvin Watt

NC-13 Democratic Incumbent Rep. Brad Miller

So, how are we doing?
Well, we hold 6 seats that look pretty safe based on past elections. In the 7 seats the Republicans hold, we have declared candidates in 5 of the races. In the Foxx race we have two potential candidates. As of yet, we have no one challenging Coble, but perhaps someone out there knows about an unknown candidate?

What are out best chances at pickups? I have to think that Heath Shuler stands a good chance of knocking off Charles Taylor. Shuler as of October 1 had a 250K to 9K lead in money. Is Taylor even running? Will he have trouble raising funds?
In the last election he raised $330K from Special Interest PACS. That same fund raising will tie into the fact he is ethically challenged, as this roundup does a good job of reviewing.

That race alone would push NC from 6-7 Dem to 7-6 Dem and into the Blue camp. But, we can't forget about our old friend Robin Hayes. Hayes is linked to the corruption, gives a rubber stamp to the Bush administration on almost every issue, and has made some bad votes on the issues - his last minute reversal on CAFTA chief among them. However, he has a $500K or greater to $49K lead over Tim Dunn as of October 1 - it should be interesting to see what happens over the next month. I have no funding information on Larry Kissell at this time, anyone else? All in all, this should be a really competitive race based on corruption and the Republican stain, however, we're going to need some more money.

Are there any other competitive races? NC 1, 2, 4, 7, 12, and 13 are our seats. NC 8 and NC 11 are the two competitive seats, so that leaves NC3, NC5, NC6, NC9, and NC10. NC5 and NC6 we have no candidates, so by definition, not competitive. That leaves NC3 (Walter Jones) and NC9 (Sue Myrick). Jones has $367K cash on hand (as of October) and his stance of Iraq might make it hard for Democrats to beat him. He has stood up to the Bush administration, against the Iraq war, etc. Not saying he shouldn't be voted out, but just that it will be hard. I don't have much information on Sue Myrick, so if anyone wants to update it, I can edit this diary. Myrick has $287K on hand, her opponent has none a of the October report.


TarGator said...

Great post. I think you are right on in terms of our chances. I would love to just take out 1 of the Repubs. Anything else would be gravy.

Robert P said...

Your probably right. I think Shuler is our best bet, but really it depends on the corruption stink. Because Taylor definitely has the stink upon him. NC voters don't like corruption all that much, especially the good country people.
I remember in Bill Clinton's book when he said he was talking to a voter that voted against him after he passed a gasoline tax. Bill asked if he would vote FOR him now and the fella said sure, you've learned your lesson.
Country sense. Willing to vote against someone because they do the wrong thing, regardless of their political party.

HappyAppy said...

So true. Hope that also works in reverse. Republicans I talk to are furious about CAFTA. Consider Hayes retired.

btw, CountryCrats is a really good idea. I'm one!

dfwhy said...

In the 10th District (8 county's) we have Richard Carsner, Democrat, running against Representive Patrick McHenry, Republican.